by Piquet

It has been a while since last Heineken Cup's game and, with the competition resuming at the end of the week, it is time to refresh our memories and see what the current situation is.

Group 1
Last round results fell exactly as Munster wanted. No bonus points were won in Perpignan, leaving the group as follows:

Munster 6 / USAP 5 / Saints 4 / Treviso 4

As a matter of fact, Northampton's loss in Perpignan means that Munster don't have to win there. Assuming that Saints beat Treviso twice, getting one bonus point in the process, they will be on 13 points after four games. If Munster and Perpignan share the match points 5-5 over their two games, the group would line up:

Saints 13 / Munster 11 / USAP 10 / Treviso 4

If Saints beat USAP, any win for Munster v Treviso puts them on 15 at least and in a strong postion. Saints will be on 17 or 18 and a 4-0, 5-0 or 5-1 win in the last game will win Munster the group. (A Bonus Point in Treviso would mean any win would do except 4-2 if Saints got the bonus v USAP)

If USAP win in Franklin's Gardens, they'll go to 14 or 15, and given that they'll probably beat Treviso with the bonus in the last game, Munster might need a bonus point win in the last game to win the group, depending on the details of the two USAP Munster games.

This analysis puts Munster on 19 or 20 points and unlikely to get a home Quarter Final. Onlytwo teams have managed to win the HC, having played away in the quarter final. Of course, only one team has ever won the HC having lost their opening game and they did it twice.

Group 2

BOPB 9 /  Dragons 5 /  Gloucester 4 /  Glasgow 1

BOPB have the Dragons at home next and should get 5 and probably will win the return the following week giving them 18 at least with two left to play. In the other double header, Gloucester must travel first and will probably need to win in GLasgow and again the following week to retain any interest in the competition. If they don't and assuming these latter two games split 5-5 or 5-4 to Gloucester, the Pool Table with two games left would shape up:

BOPB 18 /  Gloucester 9 /  Dragons 5/6 /  Glasgow 5/6

Any win v Gloucester (a) or Glasgow (h) would put Biarritz on 22 and probably at home in the quarters.
Two five pointers would put Gloucester on 19 and hoping that BOPB implode v Glasgow. 19 points is unlikely to be enough for second place qualification ( not since Leicester in 2005 has it been enough)
If Gloucester were to win in Glasgow and again at home in round 4, two wins in the last two rounds would put them in the low twenties and in or out depending on bonus points

Pool 3

Leicester 8 /  Ospreys 6 / Clermont 6 /  Viadana 0

(most tables including the ERC one has Clermont in second, having scored more tries in all games. The first tiebreaker is, however match points in the games between the teams putting the Ospreys ahead.)

The Opspreys have Viadana home and away and should get 10 points. The other two games could well split 5-5, leaving the group

Ospreys 16 /  Leicester 13 /  Clermont 11 /  Viadana 0

If the Ospreys can get something from Clermont, a win in their last game would leave them on 21 at least and Leicester on 18 or 19 (or maybe 20) and probably out. If they get nothing in Clermont, they would only reach 21 by getting the bonus v Leicester. Clermont could match this by getting bonuses in both their last two games.

To sum up this group is too close to call. It will go down to bonus points between the big three, unless there is an away win. There could be three teams on 20 points, yet.

Pool 4

Stade 9 /  Ulster 5 /  Edinburgh 4 /  Bath 1

Stade come to Ravenhill first a must win for Ulster. Ulster need to pull out a big performance the following week as well, ideally winning but at the very least only losing 1-4. If the Edinburgh - Bath games split 5-5 that would leave the group

Stade 13 /  Ulster 10 /  Edinburgh 9 /  Bath 6

Ulster would then need two wins with at least one bonus and a slip up for Stade. A win in Paris would simplify things greatly.

Pool 5

Toulouse 9 /  Cardiff 5 /  Sale 4 /  Harlequins 1

Toulouse have Cardiff at home first and a win particularly if they get a bonus would put them in pole position. Cardiff would hope to get out with a 1-4 loss and to turn it around the following week. Sale will go all out for a win at the Stoop with 'quins out barring a miracle at this stage. If Toulouse - Cardiff split 5-5 and if Sale did the double on 'quins, the table would be:

Toulouse 14 /  Sale 12 /  Cardiff 10 /  Harlequins 2?

Toulouse have 'Quins at home in round 5 and will surely win that possibly with the bonus to go to 18/19. They would then hope that Cardiff beat Sale and a win against an already eliminated Sale would give them a home quarter. In that scenario, a win for Cardiff over quins would leave them on 18 and needing bonusses to proceed. They really need to beat Toulouse away.

Pool 6

Scarlets 8 /  Leinster 5 /  London Irish 5 /  Brive 0

Leinster travel to Wales first and really need to win there. Based on the round two performance, Brive won't put up much of a show against Irish who could well end up with 9 points from these two games. A 5-5 split for Leinster would leave the table:

London Irish 14 / Scarlets 13 / Leinster 10 / Brive 0

Toulouse v Dragons
BOPB v Ospreys
Stade Francais v Munster
Leicester v Scarlets

by Piquet